Daily Pour

Date: 19/01/2026   Issue No.: 3791/25-26

Compiled By: Aarti Ghag, Executive Officer - WR

B. Ramchandran, Chennai

IIF News

Dear all,

74th Indian Foundry Congress & IFEX, 12-14 Feb 2026, Mumbai

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Thought of the Day

News Letter Supported By

Today's Top Raw Materials Headlines

*** India: Melting scrap prices surge by INR 1,000/t d-o-d in Alang

*** India’s Scrap Boom: Why 2025–2030 Will Be a Seller’s Market

*** India: Chrome ore dispatches rise 20% m-o-m in Nov'25

*** India: Leading stainless steel manufacturer hikes coil prices on firm nickel costs, global cues

*** Chinese Carburiser price moves up slowly

*** Chinese Ferro silicon Price stays stable

*** Chinese Ferro Chrome price remains steady

Raw Material News

India Set to Drive 15% of Global Growth as Markets Enter Reflation Phase

A report indicates India is poised to benefit as global markets enter a reflationary phase, with the country projected to contribute over 15% of global incremental GDP growth between 2025 and 2030. The phase is driven by structural disinflation and targeted policy support, differing from past cycles fueled by excess liquidity. India's position is strengthened by policy-led growth, easing liquidity, and a potentially weakening US dollar, making it a key beneficiary within emerging markets. The report also highlights investment preferences for medium-term government bonds and gold as a long-term hedge.

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India: Melting scrap prices surge by INR 1,000/t d-o-d in Alang

 Ship-breaking melting scrap prices in Gujarat's Alang market rose by INR 1,000/t d-o-d on 16 Jan'26. HMS (80:20) prices were assessed at INR 32,800/t ($362/t) exy. Improved trading activity in the regional steel market, supported by an increase of INR 1,400-1,600/t in semi-finished and finished steel prices, lifted scrap prices. Robust demand and a slight supply shortage further encouraged scrap suppliers to raise offers today.

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Vietnam’s Ferrous Scrap Imports Hit Four-Year High

Vietnam’s ferrous scrap imports surged to a record high in December 2025, reaching 683,854 tonnes, a 59% month-on-month increase. Total imports for 2025 reached 6.25 million tonnes, up 26.5% from the previous year. The spike is attributed to aggressive year-end restocking by Vietnamese mills as they prepare for steady steel production in early 2026.

Industry News

India Set to Drive 15% of Global Growth as Markets Enter Reflation Phase

A report indicates India is poised to benefit as global markets enter a reflationary phase, with the country projected to contribute over 15% of global incremental GDP growth between 2025 and 2030. The phase is driven by structural disinflation and targeted policy support, differing from past cycles fueled by excess liquidity. India's position is strengthened by policy-led growth, easing liquidity, and a potentially weakening US dollar, making it a key beneficiary within emerging markets. The report also highlights investment preferences for medium-term government bonds and gold as a long-term hedge.

As global markets enter a reflationary phase, India is poised to benefit as the country is projected to contribute over 15 per cent of global incremental GDP growth between 2025 and 2030, a report showed on Friday.

The report from Equirus Wealth said that India has room for growth as global investors reassess concentrated exposure to the US AI trade and seek diversification across Asia.

It highlighted that foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows of nearly $18 billion in 2025 have left India underweight in many portfolios, creating scope for selective inflows if emerging market sentiment improves.

Around 75 per cent of the MSCI Emerging Markets index is concentrated in just four markets -- China, India, Korea and Taiwan.

India will emerge a key beneficiary within emerging markets supported by policy-led growth, easing liquidity conditions and early signs of a weakening US dollar.

The country is likely to contribute significantly to global incremental GDP growth between 2025-2030, surpassing the combined contribution of Japan and Germany, the report said.

The current reflation phase differs from past cycles, driven by structural disinflation and targeted policy support that makes earnings durability and balance‑sheet strength the primary drivers of returns, the report further said.

"We are entering a reflationary phase, but this cycle is very different from past risk‑on environments. It is not about excess liquidity, but about policy‑led support for growth in a low‑inflation world. In such a regime, asset allocation becomes more selective, and India benefits from the combination of strong real growth and macro stability," said Mitesh Shah, CEO, Equirus Family Office.

The wealth management firm favoured the 4-7 year government bond segment, particularly state development loans, and noted the 10‑year yield remains around 6.60 per cent.

Gold continues to be positioned as a long-term portfolio hedge, supported by central bank buying, geopolitical risks and declining trust in fiat currencies, while silver is viewed as a tactical, high-volatility trade, it noted.

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New Supply Contracts to US in Limbo Amid Tariff Woes: ACMA

Component exports to the US remain flat in the first half of FY26; the tariff impact is expected to be more significant in the second half.

Amid higher tariffs imposed by the US on exports from India, the auto component industry here remains uncertain about new supply contracts to the US, as many companies in the US and other regions under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have started showing hesitation in making deals for new supplies from companies in India.

The Auto Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA) President Vikrampati Singhania on Wednesday said new contracts from the US are in limbo, while existing supply contracts continue.

“New contracts that are due are a little bit in limbo, whereas existing supply chains continue because a supplier has to go through qualification processes and stringent approval processes. It is not very easy for an OE to switch suppliers,” he said.

Sriram Viji, ACMA president-designate, said that companies in North America are showing hesitation in signing new deals.

“We have seen that the tariff imposed by the US on much of the world, including India, has led to a lot of hesitation from companies in the US and the NAFTA region to source new projects from companies in India.”

Component exports to the US from India now carry a tariff of 25%. About 55% of India’s auto component exports to the US, mainly car parts, were covered under Section 232 tariffs, while commercial vehicle and off-highway parts were hit by additional reciprocal tariffs that pushed duties as high as 50% in some cases.

A clarification issued on November 1 rolled these higher rates back, bringing all these categories under a single 25%, which is now applied uniformly to Indian auto component exports to the US.

Viji also noted that some countries have managed to secure more favourable rates even under the Section 232 tariff regime, leaving India at a disadvantage when competing in those markets.

Even a 10 percentage point gap in tariffs can significantly change trade flows, as profit margins in the auto component industry are thin and companies find it difficult to absorb such higher prices, he said.

“So, unless we see either some resolution on this front, or at least stability and clarity on where things are going, I think there will be some challenges going forward with respect to trade, specifically with respect to the US.”

More Impact Expected in H2 FY26

India’s auto component industry recorded a trade deficit of US$200 million during the first half of FY26. This was primarily due to the absence of growth in exports to the US amid tariffs, while all other major regions saw growth in exports. Imports from China also grew significantly during the period.

The industry clocked US$41.2 billion in revenue during April–September 2025, a growth of 3.5% year-on-year. Exports rose 9.3% to US$12.1 billion, while imports into India rose at a faster rate of 12.5% to US$12.3 billion.

“All are aware of the headwind that we have in exports. Yet, exports did well. But this time, there has been a bad trade deficit compared to the trade surplus that we had last year,” said ACMA Director General Vinnie Mehta.

“I must qualify here that in the first six months, supply to the US has remained the same. It has been very steady. And that is because the impact of Trump tariffs would be felt more in the second half than in the first half.” 
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Life Style and Management

Skills you need for the future of work

In this day and age, let’s be real: traditional education alone is becoming about as useful as a flip phone in a TikTok world. With automation, AI, and remote work shaking things up, we need to shift our focus to what actually matters.

The Skills for the Future:

- Digital Literacy: Don’t just swipe right on degrees; get savvy with tech tools! You can’t just scroll through life without knowing how to use a laptop.

- Critical Thinking:Can you solve problems? Great! This is your golden ticket to standing out in a crowd of degree-holders.

- Emotional Intelligence: Can you read the room? Good relationships are the new gold.

- Adaptability: If you can’t roll with the punches, you might find yourself in a corner of the job market nobody wants to visit.

We need to stop fixating on degrees and start nurturing these vital skills. Lifelong learning isn’t just a buzzword; it’s a necessity! Dive into online courses, workshops, and real-world experiences like an ant in sugar.

Jokes All the Way......

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The Institute of Indian Foundrymen